Beyond the Margin of Error (8): Compromised Demographics
So as we have found out over the past few days, PPP's crosstabs aren't very helpful when it comes to the actual opinions of youth and minorities, despite accurate topline numbers. Is there a way to...
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DKos Polling Aggregate: Is This Why Republicans Hate Education?
This summer, the DailyKos/SEIU/PPP polls started including a question about educational attainment. So how does education relate to political views? With a whole summer of data at hand (10,000...
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DKos Polling Aggregate: Unions and Support for Obama
The 2008 exit polls showed Obama receiving 59% of the vote among union households, and 51% among non-union households. While certainly an advantage, that doesn't seem like a huge difference, at least...
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Red States, Blue States, and Swing States: The New DKos Poll Crosstabs in...
With the introduction of the new crosstabs showing the Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP weekly poll split into Red States, Blue States, and Swing States, I thought it would be informative to look back at the spring...
View ArticleOld White People More Likely to Watch Debates; CNN Poll OK
The composition of the debate-watching audience is somewhat older and whiter than the electorate as a whole. At least, it was in 2008.So, when CNN publishes a poll of debate watchers, and it's full of...
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Daily Kos/SEIU poll: Obama voters are still excited
With this week's DailyKos/SEIU/PPP poll conducted mainly on the Thursday and Friday after the debate last week, we might have expected excitement levels of Obama voters to plunge while the excitement...
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Predicting the House Using Historical Data
It turns out there is a very strong relationship between the number of seats Democrats gain in the House and the change in the popular vote margin from the previous House election. Using a regression...
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Senate Predictions - Democrats Get Boost From Polling Errors?
If the past is prologue, the polling averages will be off by a few points again this year in many races, but that error may be predictable, at least averaged over many races. And if we could predict...
View ArticleThere Was Probably No Debate Bounce - And No Convention Bounce Either
Or rather, I do not think it means what it is commonly thought to mean.The polling numbers have changed significantly in response to events, this much is true. But these bounces we've seen do not seem...
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If Minorities Vote, Romney Can't Win: Gaming Out the Popular Vote Possibilities.
Let me be more specific: If turnout and support is as high among minorities as polls indicate, and if President Obama gets at least as much support from white voters as Democratic House candidates did...
View ArticleShattering Myths With the Numbers: Obama Voters Are Excited, Turnout High
We keep hearing certain things again and again - Obama voters are not enthusiastic, they won't turn out, especially minorities, and Obama's support just isn't that strong this year. Here's a last...
View ArticleElection Predictions Based on Past Polling Errors
Recently I introduced a simple model for predicting election results from current polling averages and past polling errors. This post presents final predictions for all statewide presidential, senate,...
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Dear Republicans: You spoke. Women listened. No Senate for you.
Composition of new Senate:Update: The gender gap generally increased in 2012 compared to 2008 or 2004. Republicans need say no more.
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More accurate than Nate Silver or Markos—and simple, too
Earlier we learned that Markos predicted the results of the closest 2012 presidential races with more accuracy than Nate Silver at 538, who was the best of the polling aggregators and/or modelers.But...
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A closer look at changing demographics
Earlier this month, Republicans were shocked to find out that, no, the diversity of the 2008 electorate didn't decrease, it increased. Some Republicans did seem to at least understand the long-term...
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The great grey hope of Republicans
Do people get more conservative as they age?Some people answer this question with a resounding 'Yes!'Fortunately, we have 40 years worth of Presidential exit polls to use to try to poke around at this...
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Can you trust political trends?
If you plot up the presidential results since Reagan came along, you get something interesting: a nice little regression. Using results from 1980-2008 (excluding 1992), you would have predicted that...
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Taking back the House and the popular vote
What with the recent attention the House of Representatives has brought upon itself, it is a good time to bring back House prediction models. Sam Wang has been busy over at Princeton Election...
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Beyond the Margin of Error: The Virginia polling errors in context
A few weeks ago there was an election in Virginia where the polls were off by a fair amount—the margin of victory for the Democrat in the governor's race was about five points less than the polling...
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