We keep hearing certain things again and again - Obama voters are not enthusiastic, they won't turn out, especially minorities, and Obama's support just isn't that strong this year. Here's a last minute roundup of what the numbers actually say.
Turnout will likely be high. The ABC/WaPo tracker says 88% of registered voters are certain to vote or have already voted. Pew also says 88% definitely will vote or have already voted - the highest ever among the 19 polls with this question since 1996. (Note that Pew numbers have been 2-6 points lower than Census turnout numbers.) Latino Decisions says this number is 89% among Latino registered voters. And, we see strong Democratic and minority turnout in actual votes as well.
Voters expect Obama to win. By 52% to 30%, voters expect Obama will win in the Pew poll, and by 55% to 35% in ABC/WaPo. Perhaps most telling, though, is that Pew shows 16% of Romney voters expect Obama to win, while only 2% of Obama voters expect Romney to win.
This type of question is actually a significant predictor of the outcome. Just prior to the close election of November 2004, 48% expected Bush to win and 27% thought Kerry most likely. In November 2000, it was 43% Bush to 32% Gore.
Obama supporters are enthusiastic. In the Daily Kos poll this week, 71% of Obama voters said they were Very Excited and 76% of Romney voters said they were Very Excited. This is not a significant difference, and the numbers have been closely tracking each other all fall. In the ABC/WaPo poll, 69% of Obama voters said they were Very Enthusiastic about supporting Obama, versus 61% of Romney supporters saying they were Very Enthusiastic about supporting Romney. (Some Romney voters are probably not enthusiastic about Romney but still excited about voting against Obama.)
Minority voters, specifically, are excited. Aggregated over the past three weeks, 83% of African-American Obama voters in the DailyKos poll said they were Very Excited. Meanwhile, Latino Decisions says 74% of Latino likely voters (who overwhelmingly prefer Obama) are Very Enthusiastic.
Obama has stronger support. Pew says 39% of likely voters support Obama strongly, with 9% backing him moderately. Romney's numbers are 33% strong, 11% moderate. This is almost exactly the same as Bush and Kerry's numbers in 2004, except inverted (Bush 39/9, Kerry 32/13).
More Obama voters are voting for him. In the October 20th Daily Kos poll, 86% of Obama voters said they were voting for him, 12% against Romney. Meanwhile, only 66% of Romney voters said they were voting for him, and 32% were voting against Romney. Pew has similar numbers: 80% for Obama, 60% for Romney. Romney's numbers have improved since September, when they were in the same league as Dole's or Kerry's, but are currently similar to McCain's and Gore's.
Known unknowns. There is a bit of a problem with this analysis, and that is that it is based on polls. And the polls, as always, are not perfect - we know, for instance, that politically involved voters are more likely to sit through a poll, and some demographic groups harder to reach than others. But overall, all signs point to an Obama victory - as long as people get to the polls tomorrow!
Sources:
ABC/WaPo
Pew
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP
Latino Decisions
Democracy Corps