A closer look at changing demographics

Earlier this month, Republicans were shocked to find out that, no, the diversity of the 2008 electorate didn't decrease, it increased. Some Republicans did seem to at least understand the long-term trend prior to the election: As Sen. Lindsey Graham infamously put it, “We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.”

There's still plenty of white guys around, of course, just not enough of the ones who are angry about the things Republicans want them to be angry about. But the pool of white guys from which to draw angry white guy voters is shrinking over time.

The census numbers provide a more detailed look at this phenomenon than the exit polls. The census numbers are plotted below for elections from 1972 to 2008. Each bar on the graph represents an age group during a certain election. We see in the upper left-hand corner, for example, that the oldest voters of the 1970s elections were 90-95 percent non-Hispanic white. On the opposite end of the curve, the youngest voters in the 2008 elections (lower right-hand corner) were just 67 percent non-Hispanic white. The 2012 census data are not yet available.

This graph shows a demographic cliff. Younger voters are far more diverse than older voters. Not only that, but for any given birth year of the current electorate, the diversity is increasing over time. Join me below for more details on replacement, immigration, and participation, three processes that spell doom for the current incarnation of the Republican Party.

Update: The graph above is a complicated one. An enlarged, simplified version, with points instead of bars, can be found here.