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Party favors: The Democrats aren't popular, but the Republicans are much...
The recent shutdown debacle had a large effect on the net favorability for Republicans, bringing their numbers to levels far worse than Gingrich's shutdown did and even worse than what we saw with the...
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Marriage equality leaves opponents in the polling dust
With six recent polls showing support for same-sex marriage at 59 percent, 56 percent, 55 percent, 55 percent, 54 percent, and 53 percent, it seems like a good time to make anothergraph of the polling...
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Marriage equality and judicial unactivism
While searching for old polling data on the topic of marriage equality, I found Gallup's marriage page, and right below the data for same-sex marriage are the numbers for the question Do you approve or...
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How Mitch McConnell's worn out his welcome with Kentucky voters, in one...
Senator Mitch McConnell is not very popular in Kentucky. He's in far worse shape than six years ago, when he won with 53 percent of the vote. His job approval ratings took a real hit this fall,...
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40 years of changing attitudes towards LGBT neighbors, one relationship at a...
Polling data from the past 40 years shows a growing acceptance of gay and lesbian individuals in our society in the United States. In the last twoposts, I've focused on polling regarding same-sex...
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Mapping Eric Cantor's epic loss
Because this loss will never get old. And maps are fun. Brat's base of support in Hanover County, a solid block of purple, really stands out. Cantor's strongest counties, in the North of the district,...
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Yes, thousands of Obama voters did vote against Eric Cantor
Last Tuesday evening I sat down to write a post conclusively showing that Democratic crossover voters couldn't have provided the winning margin for Dave Brat, the college professor who beat Eric Cantor...
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Is Mississippi's map more favorable for Chris McDaniel?
As the run-off primary between incumbent Senator Thad Cochran and State Senator Chris McDaniel nears, I thought it would be interesting to see some more details from the results a few weeks ago and...
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More than 10,000 Democrats saved Thad Cochran's bacon
Another week, another dramatic Republican primary, this time a runoff. Senator Thad Cochran eked out a narrow win against Chris McDaniel by appealing to Democrats in general and African-American voters...
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Third-party candidates are polling unusually well this year
If you look in the Daily Kos Elections oh-so-handy polling database, you may notice about a third of the races polled have a third-party candidate polling at 5 percent or above.As David Nir noted the...
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Why 2014 is not 2010, in one very clear chart
At the beginning of the year, we heard a lot of talk about how 2014 was going to be another Republican wave year, like 2010, or bigger. Now, however, it's clear that 2014 has not followed the same...
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The year of the crappy pollster
Sometimes it seems like we've been inundated with a flood of lousy polling this year. So I checked out the numbers—and it's not just a feeling. Looking at just Senate polling, there's been quite an...
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Polling scatter and volatility
We're now getting polls left, right (a lot of those) and center. In my last post I showed that this is The Year of the Crappy Pollster. But in order to document their crappiness, we need to know a...
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How much error do today's polls have?
Yesterday we talked some about what can cause polling errors. But let's cut to the chase: we really want to know how well today's polls can predict election outcomes in November.This has an easy...
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The errors of polling averages
Previously, we saw that today's Senate polls, on average, will have an error of about seven points in the margin, if they are anything like the polls in 2010 and 2012.What about polling averages? Many,...
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New Hampshire polls show mostly harmless noise
On Tuesday, a new Granite State Poll of the two House races in New Hampshire was released. The results showed Democrat Carol Shea-Porter with a three-point lead in NH-01, and Republican Marlinda Garcia...
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The South Dakota Senate race is Schrödinger's election
Democrat Rick Weiland All eyes are now turning to to South Dakota, as what was long thought to be an easy win for Republican Mike Rounds is suddenly a messy three-way race with a fourth candidate...
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Delving into the CBS/NYT/YouGov polls
This week featured the release of 437 pages of polling data from all 50 states via the CBS/NYT/YouGov polls. While there were a handful of oddball results, it was not too many more than might be...
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Most of the data on Latino voters is bogus. Here are the real poll numbers.
Recently, there was a story claiming Republican candidates were winning among Latino voters in Georgia. The entirety of this story was based on a small portion of a SurveyUSA/11Alive poll that...
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The polls will be wrong.
There is one thing I can be sure will happen next Tuesday: lots of polls will be wrong. Some will be very wrong. Of course, we know better than to pin hopes on an individual poll; but as it turns out,...
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