This week featured the release of 437 pages of polling data from all 50 states via the CBS/NYT/YouGov polls. While there were a handful of oddball results, it was not too many more than might be expected from your average group of 60+ election polls. When the margin (D-R) of each poll was compared to a local regression of all polls in each respective contest (when possible), the YouGov polls, on average, were only about half a point more Republican in the margin than the polling average. Also, keep in mind that there were simply too few respondents in some of the smaller states (ND, SD, VT, and WY).
Here's a graph of how YouGov Senate and Governor polls have compared to the polling averages since 2010 (a handful of polls from earlier in the cycle have not been included):
Points above the red line were more Democratic in the margin than other polls of that contest at that time; below, they were more Republican. It's a little difficult to see, but YouGov polls have tended to move toward the polling average as we get closer to election day. For instance, their final Senate and Governor polls in 2010 and 2012 were on average 0.1 points away from the polling average of the margin, with a standard deviation of 3.7; in contrast, their July polls this year were on average 1.3 points too Republican in the margin, with a standard deviation of 5.4.
Help elect more and better Democrats this November! Please give $3 to Daily Kos' endorsed candidates and strike a blow against Republicans.Below the fold, a few interesting nuggets of information from this massive data release.Voting by mail is convenient, easy, and defeats the best of the GOP's voter suppression efforts. Sign up here to check eligibility and vote by mail, then get your friends, family, and coworkers to sign up as well.
