The Republican primaries were essentially over months ago by now. Romney should be basking in his winner's glow and consolidating his base. But that's not exactly what's happening. Of respondents to the DailyKos/SEIU/PPP polls who say they will vote for Romney, only about 80% say they have a favorable opinion of him. That's after a slight nominal increase over the past few months. By contrast, about 94% of Obama voters say they have a favorable opinion of Obama. Both these numbers' trends over time are shown below at the top of the graph, red for Romney and blue for Obama, along with those who have unfavorable opinions and those who are not sure at the bottom.
Common sense would argue that Romney voters who don't like Romney might not be all that motivated to vote. And common sense, in this case, is right: the plurality of these voters are Not At All Excited about voting in the upcoming election. Details below.