Sunday, October 29, 2006, the news broke: Jerry Brady, Democratic candidate for Governor of Idaho, was just one point behind his opponent. On Tuesday, we learned the Cook Political Report changed the race to Toss-Up status. Then Thursday, another poll, this time with the Democrat up by five points. In freakin' Idaho.
Then came election day, and the Republican won by about nine points.
In 2010, Daily Kos commissioned a poll of the governor's race in Hawai'i in early October. The result was a virtual tie, with the Democrat Neil Abercrombie leading by an insignificant two points. Rasmussen agreed. Two more polls showed margins that were only slightly better, and it looked like the Big Red Wave of 2010 might very well wash up on Hawai'i's shores.
Then came election day, and Abercrombie won by about seventeen points!
Michael Steele was just three points away from winning a Senate seat according to the polling average, only to lose by eleven points. Harry Reid pulled out a big come-from-behind victory in 2010. Pat Quinn was down by six in his quest to hold on to the Governor's seat in Illinois, but eked out a win. A string of Republican heartbreaks recently, where polls let them think they were close, but they were so very wrong.
How did all these polls - averages of multiple polls in each case - fail so spectacularly? Can we predict when it will happen again? And what does this have to do with Elizabeth Warren? Join me below...