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95% of anti-abortion Democratic House votes disappeared in just five years
Click to enlarge.Last week, we noticed that of the 64 House Democrats who voted for the anti-abortion Stupak Amendment, only 12 remain. And of those 12, only three (Cuellar, Lipinski, and Peterson)...
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These are the Democrats who voted against abortion coverage, Wall Street...
Click to enlarge.A little while back, we showed you the House Democrats who voted with Republicans on two key topics: the environment and Wall Street reform. Today we add a third topic:...
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Oregon's not-so-pretty racist past is not yet history
If your impression of Oregon as a quirky island of tolerance is formed by its blue-state status and its history of progressive ballot measures (or by watching Portlandia), you should check out a...
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Here are the Senate Democrats who voted to move forward on building the...
Click to enlarge.One of the first things the new Republican-led Senate has done is moved a bill forward to approve the Keystone XL Pipeline. Ten Democratic senators and independent Angus King of Maine...
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A quick guide to the potential Democratic candidates for Senate in California
Click to enlarge.For those who want to keep score at home, here's a quick guide to who's who among the Democrats mentioned in connection with a run for Senate in California. For a more detailed list,...
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These Democrats voted to weaken Wall Street reform and build the Keystone...
(click to enlarge)The year 2015 is off to an interesting start in Congress, with two votes on key topics that let us see what stuff our current Democratic congresscritters are made of.On the left are...
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How the GOP can lose its remaining support from Latino voters, in one easy step
The numbers above, are, quite frankly, amazing. Latino voters are a diverse group, and like any diverse group, it's hard to get nearly uniform opinion on anything. But immigration does it. A whopping...
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We said the polls would be wrong. We had no idea they'd be this wrong
So a few days ago I wrote a post about how the polls can be wrong. I showed how over the past ten years, polls have more often than not overestimated Republican performance. And I warned that we...
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The polls will be wrong.
There is one thing I can be sure will happen next Tuesday: lots of polls will be wrong. Some will be very wrong. Of course, we know better than to pin hopes on an individual poll; but as it turns out,...
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Most of the data on Latino voters is bogus. Here are the real poll numbers.
Recently, there was a story claiming Republican candidates were winning among Latino voters in Georgia. The entirety of this story was based on a small portion of a SurveyUSA/11Alive poll that...
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Delving into the CBS/NYT/YouGov polls
This week featured the release of 437 pages of polling data from all 50 states via the CBS/NYT/YouGov polls. While there were a handful of oddball results, it was not too many more than might be...
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The South Dakota Senate race is Schrödinger's election
Democrat Rick Weiland All eyes are now turning to to South Dakota, as what was long thought to be an easy win for Republican Mike Rounds is suddenly a messy three-way race with a fourth candidate...
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New Hampshire polls show mostly harmless noise
On Tuesday, a new Granite State Poll of the two House races in New Hampshire was released. The results showed Democrat Carol Shea-Porter with a three-point lead in NH-01, and Republican Marlinda Garcia...
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The errors of polling averages
Previously, we saw that today's Senate polls, on average, will have an error of about seven points in the margin, if they are anything like the polls in 2010 and 2012.What about polling averages? Many,...
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How much error do today's polls have?
Yesterday we talked some about what can cause polling errors. But let's cut to the chase: we really want to know how well today's polls can predict election outcomes in November.This has an easy...
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Polling scatter and volatility
We're now getting polls left, right (a lot of those) and center. In my last post I showed that this is The Year of the Crappy Pollster. But in order to document their crappiness, we need to know a...
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The year of the crappy pollster
Sometimes it seems like we've been inundated with a flood of lousy polling this year. So I checked out the numbers—and it's not just a feeling. Looking at just Senate polling, there's been quite an...
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Why 2014 is not 2010, in one very clear chart
At the beginning of the year, we heard a lot of talk about how 2014 was going to be another Republican wave year, like 2010, or bigger. Now, however, it's clear that 2014 has not followed the same...
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Third-party candidates are polling unusually well this year
If you look in the Daily Kos Elections oh-so-handy polling database, you may notice about a third of the races polled have a third-party candidate polling at 5 percent or above.As David Nir noted the...
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More than 10,000 Democrats saved Thad Cochran's bacon
Another week, another dramatic Republican primary, this time a runoff. Senator Thad Cochran eked out a narrow win against Chris McDaniel by appealing to Democrats in general and African-American voters...
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